Lawrence Lessig on Hayek and the prediction markets:
Here's the but: The prediction markets apparently did very badly with the Supreme Court nomination. Roberts was way behind for a long time on tradesports.com, and during the Clement cascade, Clement started to dominate everyone else. (Also Rehnquist was strongly predicted to resign; investors got that one wrong too.) Can we develop a general account of when prediction markets will work well, and when they won't? (And if so, should we eventually test that account in a prediction market?).
Good question! I've been futzing with YALE to learn how people actually propose to do this. Have a piece coming out on the subject. But I will be in Brazil, on vacation.
In fact, I am sitting here waiting for the appointed hour for the car service to arrive and start us off toward Sao Paulo. To take the computer or not? I finally decided that even on a desert beach with no WiMax in range, I might want to futz with all this crazy junk on my machine ... or tap out, who knows, the opening sentence of my great American novel on the wiki I have running on LAMP on localhost. Current favorite: Confluence. Hey, if it's good enough for the World Bank, it's good enough for me! Other financial users:
- # Citigroup
- ABN Amro
- BNP Paribas
- Deutsche Bank
- Suncorp Metway
- First NZ Capital
- Friends Provident
Could make a good story.
Boy, what a year. My job got really stressful there for a while, so I need a rest. Neuza misses her tropical homeland, while I am militating for changing the weirdly engineered and astonishingly dangerous electric showerhead in our funky barn of a house in the Vila Madelena. I'll be blogging photos and adventure updates on my personal blog project and trying to ignore America and securities industry operations and technology for a while. I probably won't, though: I'll probably get up every morning as usual, open my "open-source Bloomberg box" in Firefox, and make my usual notes in my TagTiddlyWiki on a stick ... you can take the gringo out of gringoland but you can't take the gringoland out of the gringo ... Above, our friend Rosalia in her triumphant revival tour of the seminal Brazilian all-girl punk band As Mercen�rias, which made big news all over, even in the Brazilian Wikipedia ...